{"id":3083,"date":"2022-02-20T16:08:22","date_gmt":"2022-02-20T16:08:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thewitnessexet.wpengine.com\/?p=3083"},"modified":"2022-03-06T15:23:23","modified_gmt":"2022-03-06T15:23:23","slug":"the-invisible-man-olaf-scholz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thewitnessexeter.co.uk\/?p=3083","title":{"rendered":"‘The Invisible Man\u2019 \u2013 Olaf Scholz"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \t<\/i> Read Time:<\/span>4 Minute, 50 Second <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n

\u201cI think it\u2019s fair to say that the United States has no better partner, no better friend in the world than Germany,\u201d declared<\/a> U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, standing alongside Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. Blinken\u2019s remarks were in June 2021 \u2013 at the apex of Merkel\u2019s flurry of diplomatic goodbyes to German allies given the conclusion of her chancellorship \u2013 but forward to the leadership of Olaf Scholz, the mood couldn\u2019t be any more different. For Scholz, the vacuum that followed the departure of Merkel offers him considerable room in establishing his own style of leadership. However, Merkel\u2019s leadership<\/a> within the European Union, Germany\u2019s commitment to the Trans-Atlantic alliance, and Berlin\u2019s \u2018special-relationship\u2019 with Moscow was distinguishable amongst Western states. Scholz may opt to diverge from his predecessor\u2019s style of leadership, but the precedent of her leadership makes his absence from diplomatic circles even more noticeable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Merkel\u2019s legacy on policy making must be highlighted. Noticeably, her appearance as the \u201cleader of the free world\u201d<\/a> was in some part true, though this was relative to the populist strongmen of the U.S. President Donald Trump, Brazilian President Jair Bolsanaro, and even British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. She navigated the bailout-programme for southern European states during the Eurozone crisis, she co-led the Minsk agreements during the annexation of Crimea by Moscow in 2014, and she showed humanity \u2013 at considerable cost \u2013 given the refugee crisis of 2015. In an age of backlash to wider trends in globalisation<\/a> \u2013 where the resurgence of populism in the United Kingdom, Italy, and even in the former Soviet space of Poland has challenged the status-quo – Merkel can largely be accounted for her avid defence of the wider liberal-international order. The coherence of the European Union given subsequent crises, and Washington\u2019s continuing role within NATO is evidence of that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, to understand Scholz\u2019s absence in recent days, it is important to appreciate that Merkel wasn\u2019t as \u2018liberal\u2019 as the contours of her chancellorship may suggest. Firstly, the role of China. In light of the rise of China, under Xi Jinping since 2000<\/a>, Berlin has pursued a purely realist foreign-policy given Germany\u2019s export-oriented economy<\/a>. Despite the mounting pressure by the wider western-world given the abuses of human rights in Xinjiang \u2013 Merkel prioritised geo-economic interests over the wider liberal sentiment that seemingly captured her actions on the eurozone and refugee crisis \u2013 and the term \u2018Merkelism\u2019<\/a> has been coined to depict her liberal but purely realist pursuit of German interests across bilateral relations. Taking this idea further, where realism has trumped liberalism, and we can see this given the nature of German-Russian relations. Unlike other Western states, noticeably Washington and London with the Baltic republics, Berlin has adopted a less combative and more cordial tone when dealing with the Kremlin. According to the Judy Dempsey at the Carnegie Europe<\/a>, Germany\u2019s policy towards Russia has been one of \u201cambiguity\u201d. Dempsey goes further \u2013 given the historical reasoning<\/a> concerning Germany\u2019s part in the massacre of Soviet Russians during WWII coupled with the economic ties<\/a> that make Berlin dependent upon Russian natural gas \u2013 thus making clear the unique ties Berlin-Moscow share that have been anomalous to a broader \u2018western standard\u2019.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Merkel\u2019s foreign policy legacies therefore influenced Scholz\u2019s foreign-policy expectations. Without detailing the Ukraine crisis just yet \u2013 where Russian troops are currently stationed in Belarus, Western Russia, Moldova, and the Black Sea<\/a> \u2013 realism with the admittance of constructivist values of historical legacies shapes German foreign policy towards Moscow. Merkel\u2019s decision to ban nuclear energy production<\/a> – given the Fukushima disaster – has only entrenched German dependency on Russia for energy, thus making it increasingly dependent on Russia. However – where energy costs in Germany<\/a> are the highest in Europe – Merkel alluded to the slower-than-expected role of energy transition given the banning of nuclear energy and continuance of natural gas provision. According to Merkel, \u201cWe cannot \u2014 as some have demanded \u2014 get out of nuclear power and coal and then withdraw from natural gas as fast as possible,\u201d she said. \u201cThat\u2019s not going to be possible<\/a>.\u201d\u202f <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, given the Ukrainian Crisis, the role of Nord Stream 2<\/a> has come under fire again. Not for the reasons for its construction, since that is history, but for its potential role as a key bargaining tool<\/a> against Moscow\u2019s actions in Eastern Ukraine should it decide to initiate a \u201cfalse flag event<\/a>\u201d. It seems probable that cutting the supply, and thus future viability of natural gas transfers from Russia to Germany, would undermine the profits for Russian-gas monopoly Gazprom. Yet Scholz\u2019s continuation of Merkel\u2019s ambiguous foreign policy on Moscow has sustained hysteria regarding Berlin\u2019s commitment to cutting-off gas supplies in the event of Russian intervention.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic, and historical factors permeate German foreign policy on Russia. According to the Financial Times, reporting from Washington, Scholz\u2019s inability to categorically mention by name \u2018Nord Stream 2\u2019 and its relevance as a hard-power tool in the event of Russian invasion exposed \u201clingering differences<\/a>\u201d on the use of Nord-Stream 2 as a bargaining tool. It seems that Scholz is at a cross-roads \u2013 either continue a path of \u2018Merkelism\u2019 that towed a ambiguous tone on Russia \u2013 or shift towards a strategy of active engagement with Moscow.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With days looming – on the what-is-expected to include the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia \u2013 Scholz must decide between following a pattern of \u2018Merkelism\u2019 on Russia or defining his own style of leadership on Russia. German ambiguity on Russia \u2013 and Ukraine \u2013 only weakens the effectiveness of any potential series of sanctions imposed by Western states. <\/p>\n

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