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The notion of Welsh independence was a mere dream for most supporters, even just five years ago at the last Senedd elections in Wales. However, that dream could now become more of a reality for its supporters.
This weekend, members of Plaid Cymru finally agreed to include a pledge for an independence referendum in their manifesto. Their leader, Adam Price, said on Andrew Marr this Sunday that “the level of support for independence now in Wales is where it was in Scotland ten years ago”. Price, who has seen an increase in support in the party since becoming leader in 2018, believes that within the next five years the time will be right for a referendum on independence.
The increase in support for Plaid Cymru is not necessarily evidence for improved support for Welsh independence. Nonetheless, the rise of the YesCymru movement cannot be overlooked – their membership has risen to over 15,000 in a matter of months and continues to rise. YesCymru merchandise is popping up throughout Wales and is another sign of support for independence.
The rise of the SNP in Scotland is of paramount importance for the welsh independence movement. With a second referendum on the cards for Scotland, the likelihood of the beginning of the breakup of the UK is rising.
Are Westminster scared? There is strong evidence to show this. Despite PM Johnson seemingly trying to ignore the Scottish and Welsh, Labour’s Sir Kier Starmer, using the aide of Former PM Gordon Brown, are looking at plans for greater constitutional reform within the UK, with a federal system on the cards. Their hope with such reform is to satisfy the needs of independence advocates; similar to the hopes of reforms made by New Labour in 1997. However, if these reforms were to be made should Labour win the next election, the question of whether they will hinder the progress of independence movements remains unclear.
All we know now, with the UK starting its journey outside the EU and the rise of independence movements, is that the next couple of years for the United Kingdom staying United is up for uncertain.
[…] Instead of endless referenda what is needed is a serious reform of the way the Scottish government interacts with Westminster. Currently, they are entirely separate entities hurling abuse at each other from 600km away. In a speech on the twenty-year legacy of devolution in Scotland, Labour MP Ian Murray declared that the UK must look at ways to improve intergovernmental relations. These include looking at reforms to the Committee system, devolutionary powers, the institutions in Westminster and looking at the feasibility of a senate of the nations and regions. In January 2020, Gordon Brown explained his support for the creation of a senate of the nations and regions, which would provide a forum for representatives of the governments of the regions and nations of the UK to debate legislation in Westminster. This could potentially replace the House of Lords as the legislative upper-chamber and give Holyrood-Westminster relations a new cooperative breath of life. An analysis of other Western federal states such as the US or Germany shows that there is very little appetite for separatism when each region is adequately represented and feels like their voices are being heard. Thus, the federalisation of the United Kingdom seems to be the only solution to ever-rising nationalism, which is happening not only in Scotland but in England and Wales too. […]