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As 2023’s first month ends and the time of the 2024 American Presidential election cycle approaches, there has been a somewhat justified amount of scepticism about whether or not the former President, Donald Trump, will be able to take the position that for a long time it seemed he was destined for. Now, after an impotent 2022 midterm election scorecard for Trump-backed candidates, it seems that the Republican party may be doing a cost-benefit analysis on their globally-controversial leader. Here, I aim to provide my own judgement on the various Republican candidates, even if they haven’t yet announced.
Donald J. Trump requires no introduction and so I shall go straight into my judgement, I would say he is very much a strong candidate in the Republican primary. Despite all the naysaying, it can be somewhat misleading to overstate the fall in popularity that Trump has experienced within the Republican party and I do not expect that he would lose easily. Early polls from the state of New Hampshire, one of the first states to vote in the primary election, show Donald Trump at a solid 30+% of the vote – even if he is not leading that poll. Furthermore, a factor that could be influencing the underperformance of Trump in core polls is visibility. It has become more difficult for Trump to be seen by many Americans, but as the primary heats up and his appeal is once again felt by a large margin of the Republican base, it is plausible that he could take home a victory, even if it isn’t as dominant as he would no doubt like. Additionally, far from being repulsed by the ongoing scandals that are battering away at Trump from the federal government, many in the Republican base feel an immense amount of anger directed towards the FBI and DOJ. It is likely that a feeling of righteous repudiation may sway many Republicans to vote for Trump just to give a middle finger to the federal government and Joe Biden, whom they hold in contempt. Whether Donald Trump could win in the wider general election is dubious and not all too clear, most polls show that he is not ahead of Joe Biden in terms of chance of victory, but a lot do indicate a quite close match – perhaps a foreboding return to the same razor-thin difference of the 2020 election. Yet, I would argue that the US economy is likely to go into recession and a soft-landing is looking increasingly unlikely, and as Biden’s personal gaffes and failings continue pilling up adding on to that economic slowdown and failure, it could be a difficult time for Democrats, and perhaps lead to a Trump return in 2024.
Ron DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida, is seemingly the future of the Republican party. Not only is he a much younger candidate than Donald Trump, with Trump in his mid-70s and DeSantis only in his 40s, he is also a far more refined and smooth political operator than Trump ever was. He has managed to tap into the same vein of issues and perhaps more importantly, voters, as Donald Trump himself. As Governor of Florida he has instituted a number of controversial policies such as the infamous HB 1557, or as it was called by its opponents the “Don’t say Gay” bill, which targeted the teaching of “sexualising” content to children below a certain age. Its controversial nature, in that it prohibited discussion of homosexual relationships within the classroom of children below a certain age, has made him a demonic figure to much of the Biden administration. Reversely, this made him a semi-messianic figure to much of the right wing commentariat in America, and of course, to many Republican voters in Florida and elsewhere. Subsequent bills banning the teaching of Critical Race Theory, a term used broadly to describe content which encapsulates ideas or themes such as white privilege or unconscious bias, and the recent rejection of an AP African American studies course, have done a lot to boost the popularity of the Governor in the minds of many Republican voters. In the same New Hampshire poll I mentioned earlier, DeSantis led with over 40% of voters saying they would vote for him in the primary, showing that he is a very strong candidate for the Republican nominee. Whether DeSantis can win a general election is perhaps less unclear than whether Trump could, yet I believe that he very much could win a larger Presidential election. DeSantis has been far more judicious in his vocabulary and behaviour and his policies and platform appeal to a wide cross-section of Americans. Also, being a very popular Governor in a very populous state, having won his recent Governor election by a margin of approximately 20 points, it is quite likely that with a waning Biden admin and the strength of his appeal, he could win convincingly in 2024.
Mike Pence, the former Governor of Indiana and former Vice President, is not a serious contender for President, nor even the nominee position. Pence’s attitude and policy platform are simply perceived to be out of date, an unsatisfying call back to the Bush-era politics that many Republican voters thought they saw off with the election of the populist, and paragon of repudiation, Donald Trump. His evangelical background may be why he could consider running, but it is simply too much of a fractured demographic to suggest that he could manage to secure enough of their support to prevent the other candidates from suffocating his campaign. Furthermore, his only other memorable role was his position as Vice President, and in the final days he served, he angered several of the most loyal Trump-ite faction, and so it is really unclear if he could draw on their support for a bid, especially if the main guy, Donald Trump, is running also. In a matter of harsh political calculus, it is inconceivable why Mike Pence seems to wish to run for President, he isn’t going to win, he hasn’t got any innovative ideas or policy platform, he has very little charisma, and so it is perplexing what it is that he thinks he is doing.
Mike Pompeo, the former Trump Admin Secretary of State, is not a serious candidate for the Republican nominee; his support is practically non-existent. His recent attacks on Donald Trump have made him unpopular with a large majority of the Republican base, his time in the cabinet was occasionally interesting but hardly warranting an attempt to run for president. He lacks even the clear demographic support of the evangelical faction, his main sticking point seems to be his toughness on China, but it has become increasingly clear that foreign policy rarely wins elections, especially in primaries. If Pompeo does run for President it will be an amusing flop, and in at least that way it will have served some, minute, purpose.
Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the UN and former Governor of South Carolina, is not a serious contender for the nomination. It may be an interesting bid to watch due to her competence in speaking and politics generally, however it is unclear which demographic of the Republican base, if any, she could attract to vote for her as the two giants, Trump, and DeSantis, are seemingly so dominant in the field where she could find some support. It is likely she could do better than Pompeo, and perhaps even run with Pence, but it is unlikely that she could win the nomination or rival Trump or DeSantis – assuming that they run anywhere close to a competent campaign.
Liz Cheney, if she decided to run as a Republican, would lose. I doubt there would even be a single digit of support for her in the primaries. Though lucratively funded, the so-called Never-Trump’er movement within the Republican party is so small, that it couldn’t win a primary election and representative of their true ideal she would be their only option. She isn’t popular in the Republican base, she isn’t even popular within the Republican caucus, and the central role she played in the January 6th committee has essentially ruined her chances of winning a Republican Presidential primary any time soon. However, if she were to run as a Democrat in those primaries, then she may have a better chance of winning.
Overall, the Republican primary is going to be a match between Trump and DeSantis and the proposed alternative candidates are so minor as to warrant no real attention. Yet, these two main candidates do show an important reality about the Republican party in the 2020s: no matter if Trump wins or loses, he will have grandfathered a whole new generation of Republican policy – perhaps at last supplanting Reagan as the chief influence on domestic and foreign policy.
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