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Though the precise identity of the Republican party’s nominee may be up for question in the current political environment, it has become increasingly common to question and doubt the credibility of a Biden 2024 run. It is fair to say that the Democratic party is thoroughly lacking in terms of good candidates, with many of its most prominent members either retiring or stepping back from prominent positions, but remaining in politics. This piece shall attempt a review of the various potential candidates who would run in a Democratic primary election, assuming that Joe Biden’s candidacy becomes even more ridiculous as time progresses.
A Joe Biden re-election campaign is certainly a possibility, and with the benefits that come with being an incumbent it is likely that he would certainly be the front-runner in any primary election, if not winning uncontested. Yet, despite the obsequious praises that drool from the mouths of Democrat politicians about the current President, it is clear to many that many of his faculties are… operating at a vastly diminished capacity. He is an old man, such health problems are the side effects of advanced age and though it is certainly uncouth to mock or degrade him because of his condition, it still is a concerning reality nonetheless. Whatever one may think of Joe Biden’s policy platform, the fact that he is clearly not well does indicate that he perhaps shouldn’t be occupying the most powerful position in the world. However, if his diminished personal capacity was his only flaw, it would be perceivable that he could simply ride on by as he did in 2020 – especially if his Republican opponent was Donald Trump. But it is not his campaign’s only flaw. The Biden administration has been plagued by a series of humiliating failures, whether it is in the domain of foreign policy or domestic policy. It is almost universally agreed that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was almost mind-numbingly incompetent, and that the subsequent Taliban regime has been a repressive hellscape for any dissenters, women, and young children. Joe Biden has managed to receive a decent amount of praise for his assistance to Ukraine, yet even this has been received as somewhat mediocre by many who see his refusal to commit fully to Ukraine as showing a hesitance, that has harmed his reputation. On the domestic front, he has been largely unimpressive, with the economy still bloated and suffering high levels of inflation, alongside a persistent threat of a recession, despite the best efforts of the independent federal reserve. Further, while he may have picked up support from the youth for his promise to cancel student loan debt, this move is largely disingenuous as the President doesn’t have the necessary powers that could provide the funding for such a move, and so it will obviously be struck down by a conservative/hostile Supreme Court.
So, can Biden win a 2024 general election? If the current polls are anything to go by, he is certainly capable of winning a 2024 run. Yet, the veneer of competence and moderation that gained Joe Biden an advantage over his opponent in 2020 has largely disintegrated as failure after failure has rocked him. If Joe Biden runs in 2024, and he continues to demonstrate more serious decline as his age progresses, a deep uncertainty about his candidacy will settle in; making the 2024 election a foggy, uncertain mess when it comes to his chances – I can’t confidently say anything about them.
The current Vice President, Kamala Harris, is someone that almost defies description, in the sense that her whole persona is an almost ineffably amusing parody of an incompetent, bland politician. It may be harsh to say as much, but I cannot find any sense in which she demonstrates the qualities needed in a presidential candidate. Barack Obama is perhaps an example of a charismatic leader, someone who could motivate and engage an audience; in comparison, Kamala is simply inadequate. Her speeches are dull, lifeless, and read more as lecturing from a particularly uninterested tutor. Boring speeches are almost the best case scenario for a speech from Ms Harris, whose occasionally unscripted moments present her as perpetually muddled and confused. Yet, focusing on Kamala Harris’ personal flaws is almost unnecessary, as she is still relatively full of life and comprehensible in comparison to Joe Biden. Her time before being VP, as a Senator, is almost irrelevant, as is her time as District Attorney in California – though one may wish to doubt her progressive credentials due to her time as DA. Her time as VP has been additionally unimpressive, with no real presence and or competence to bring to her role. Her role seems to entail that she lingers at big press conferences, attends bland international conferences, and all around does ‘stuff’. If that ‘stuff’ is meaningful, it is clearly not evident. Coming back to her potential candidacy, I believe that the Democrats will try their hardest to send Kamala Harris into a cushy lobbying job and would not be able to, nor would want to, push her over the finishing line of the race and into the White House. If Biden doesn’t run, it is even doubtful whether she would win a primary considering her own numerous flaws – she dropped out early in the 2020 Democratic primary due to lack of sufficient support. So, even if her time as VP may have boosted her profile, it is unclear whether this new notoriety will come with a positive or negative perception of the VP – with most Americans disapproving of her.
I shall now cover the remaining minor candidates: Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. I rate them all as having an almost equal chance of success at winning a primary, and that chance is nearly 0. While Pete Buttigieg is certainly present on TV screens across America consistently enough to be remembered by many, it can hardly be considered a positive thing when it is usually due to massive blunders in the transportation department. Whether it be the train derailment in East Palestine, train strikes, or the FAA groundings disaster, one cannot be sure if there has ever been a transportation secretary more under fire for failure than Mr Buttigieg. Mr Sanders’ popularity is genuinely real, and many would wish to see him run again in 2024, but it is both unlikely and is almost doomed to failure. Though in 2020, Mr Sanders saw a particularly strong showing in the initial stages of the primary, it is clearly the case that once a more centrist candidate appears to unite that part of the party, he is essentially pushed out of the front runner position. Furthermore, the man is really old, and any run by him would be met with significant scepticism from the American people. Ms Warren, if she chose to run, would lose in a similar manner to Bernie.
In conclusion, it is likely that Joe Biden will try his utmost to be the candidate in 2024 as he really is the only viable option in the contest, especially if the Republican nominee is not Mr Trump. Yet, even his campaign will be littered with numerous problems and issues that will likely mean a deeply cutting, bloody (politically-speaking) 2024 election season will soon be rounding the corner. What that will do to the state of American politics, or the civic health of the American people, will be only really known after the fact – though it doesn’t look good.
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