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Nearly a year on from the end of his premiership, it seems that Boris Johnson has been thrust into the limelight yet again, but not in the way that he was hoping for. Questioned this week by MPs over illegal parties and gatherings in Number 10 during the pandemic, he is facing charges of purposefully misleading parliament. This investigation is being carried out by a cross-party committee of MPs led by Labour’s Harriet Harman, and Johnson has been forced to face up to his perceived disregard for his government’s own pandemic guidelines. The stakes are fairly high for Johnson, as if he is found guilty of misleading parliament it is possible that a by-election could be triggered in his constituency, endangering Johnson’s position within Westminster. Public reaction to this scandal has been intense, and it seems that Johnson’s band of supporters are beginning to abandon ship. This begs the question; what comes next? Without the support of the people or his colleagues, Johnson may be left to witness his career implode, which could make any attempt to return to the top unthinkable.
Firstly, it is important to understand what it is that Johnson is being accused of. The so-called ‘Partygate Inquiry’ has been investigating whether the ex-prime minister purposefully misled Parliament over accusations of drinking and illegal gatherings in Downing Street. Johnson assured the House on multiple occasions that he was unaware of any rule-breaking, but that if it was true, he was “sure that whatever happened, the guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times”. There is evidence that there were garden parties, leaving dos and birthday celebrations, all during either national lockdowns when the rules demanded that “everyone must stay at home”, or times when social gatherings were extremely limited. Despite the mounting accusations that were facing Johnson at this time, he kept to this policy of denial, repeatedly reassuring MPs that “there was no party and that no Covid rules were broken”. However, as the country has seen over the last twelve months, this was not the case. There were multiple illegal gatherings within Number 10 when the rules did not permit them, and photo evidence from these events make it clear that social distancing was not observed. All of this makes the prognosis for Johnson’s political career fairly bleak. However- as we have witnessed many times before- Boris Johnson is not a character that can be underestimated.
It is clear that Johnson is not taking these allegations lying down. In order to combat the perception that his administration was flagrantly disregarding their own rules whilst the public obediently followed them, Johnson maintains that these events were not as they seem. Something that is strengthening Boris Johnson’s fairly weak hand within this investigation is specific findings from the Sue Gray enquiry. Despite there being photographic evidence that he attended multiple illegal lockdown gatherings, out of the 126 fines that the Metropolitan Police gave out, only one of them was handed to Johnson. Therefore, he was not found guilty of any crimes during certain events which he claimed to parliament either did not happen, or were compliant with the rules. The absolution of culpability helps to back up Johnson’s argument that he was unaware of the extent to which these gatherings broke lockdown rules, and that he did not intentionally mislead parliament. Johnson also states that Sue Gray made it clear to him that she did not believe that “the threshold of criminality had been reached”. Taking this into account, it may be difficult for the committee to come to a clear conclusion that Johnson purposefully misled Parliament over these gatherings, if the police and the Sue Gray enquiry do not clearly state that Johnson was involved- or at least aware- of outright breaches of the rules.
Johnson has also attempted to gain some ground by arguing that these were not out of control social gatherings, but rather were “essential for work purposes”. In this way, Johnson is trying to quash the accusation that his administration was very much operating under a ‘Do as I say, not as I do’ policy, and present these gatherings as something that was necessary in order to make the government run smoothly.
Clearly, the results of the committee’s investigation will have a significant impact on the future of Boris Johnson’s political career. Sanctions, and a possible by-election, will do nothing but undermine public confidence in Johnson as a politician, and seek to alienate any allies he has left. However, despite this, it could be argued that for Johnson, the damage has already been done. A BBC Question Time poll demonstrated that amongst their studio audience members (the majority of which did vote for Johnson in the last election) nobody believed that Johnson was telling the truth during the committee interview, with only one person believing that he could make a comeback. High profile figures who worked with Johnson have also made it clear that the ex-prime minister is now very much on his own. Chief scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance who worked with Johnson to coordinate the pandemic response took aim at the ex-prime minister, stating that the COVID restrictions were “for everybody”. For many within Westminster, it seems that they have decided that Johnson’s time in government is over, and that if the Conservatives have any chance of holding onto power, it will be without the help of the ex-prime minister who is now seen to be with “the wacky backy of the party”.
In summary, the outcome of the cross-party committee investigation will play a huge role in determining the future trajectory of Boris Johnson’s career in British politics. However, despite the conclusions of the investigation, it is fair to say that the damage has been done, and Johnson has been left as a political pariah. Given the scandal, and his smeared reputation, it is hard to see Boris Johnson reaching Number 10 again. Public support for Johnson is almost non-existent, and his administration’s perceived disregard of their own rules at a time when people suffered so much is something that may never be forgiven. Technicalities within law enforcement may save Johnson from sanctions, but the British public will probably never again back the man who was seen to be laughing in their faces.
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