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The appointment of Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor under President-elect Donald Trump means a not unexpected shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly with regards to China. As a China hawk, Waltz will likely take a more confrontational approach to Beijing. His tenure could impact economic policies, geopolitical strategies and the technological and cybersecurity dynamics between the two superpowers.
Waltz’s well-known criticism of China puts the U.S. on a path of increased economic decoupling. As a member of the House China Task Force, Waltz has advocated for reducing U.S. dependence on Chinese manufacturing, especially in critical sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. His policies will likely add to the existing tariffs and restrictions on Chinese imports and encourage onshoring and partnerships with allies like Japan and South Korea to build alternative supply chains. For China, this will make it harder to maintain growth in a global economic downturn. U.S. companies in China will face stricter regulations, higher costs, and potential divestment. American consumers will see higher prices on goods as they reduce their dependence on Chinese made products.
Waltz’s appointment means a repositioning of U.S. military and strategic assets in the Indo-Pacific. He has been loud about countering China’s military expansion, especially in the South China Sea where China’s actions threaten the sovereignty of neighbouring countries and international maritime law. Under his advisement, the Trump administration will likely strengthen alliances through AUKUS (Australia-UK-U.S. pact) and more military aid to Taiwan. This will likely get a sharp response from China including accelerated militarization and diplomatic pushback. Tensions in the region will rise and the risk of military confrontation will increase especially around disputed territories like the Taiwan Strait.
In technology, Waltz’s policies will focus on slowing down China’s technological progress by tightening the screws on Chinese companies like Huawei and ByteDance. He will push for stricter data sharing regulations and broader bans on Chinese apps citing national security risks. He will also lead the effort to strengthen U.S. cybersecurity infrastructure to address concerns on intellectual property theft and cyber-attacks linked to China. This will escalate the tech cold war between the two countries and intensify the competition in areas like AI and 5G.
At home, Waltz’s appointment is part of the Republican Party’s overall hardline approach to China. His words could rally bipartisan support for sanctions, but his policies may divide Congress on issues like military spending and foreign policy over domestic priorities like healthcare and education. Waltz is close to Trump so decision making will be faster within the National Security Council and less bureaucratic. But critics will argue that is a recipe for less diplomacy, especially since Trump does not trust the State Department
Waltz’s time in office could reshape US relationships with key allies in Europe and Asia. Europe is not ready to fully get on board with Washington’s hardline approach to China, but Waltz will press NATO members to see Beijing as a strategic threat like Russia. By framing China as a disruptor to global order, Waltz wants to build a broader coalition against China’s authoritarian model. But this may alienate some countries that prioritize economic ties with Beijing and put countries like Germany or South Korea in a difficult balancing act.
Mike Waltz’s appointment means the Trump administration is all in on a hardline approach to China. His policies will drive economic decoupling, military build-up in the Indo-Pacific and tech competition. While these will strengthen U.S. security and global position, they will also deepen the hostility with China, global markets and international relations. The next few years will be critical in shaping this high stakes game.
Image: Globe, Map, World map, lucasgeorgewendt from Pixabay, 2022 // CC0
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