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About the writer: Michael Galea is the serving Member of the Parliament of Victoria for the South-Eastern Metropolitan constituency in Melbourne since 2022. He is a member of the Australian Labor Party, and has kindly offered us his thoughts on the value of AUKUS to Australia. The Committee would like to thank him for his contribution, and all further text has been written by Mr. Galea.
Australia sits at a unique place in the world. A middle-power Western democracy in a little corner of the world at the south of the booming Asia-Pacific region, we are uniquely placed to capture the opportunities presented by the growth across our region in what has been coined the Asian century.
Along with those opportunities of course are the challenges of negotiating our trade and security position in a world where the centre of economic gravity is shifting westwards from the US to Asia.
Australia is a nation which has benefitted from a robust Westminster political tradition, a prosperous and strong economy and waves of migration from all parts of the world. Significantly, we have managed to share our economic fortune amongst our population in a relatively more equal way than many of our peers.
Simply put, Australia is a country which disproves the intellectually shallow catch-cry of ‘Global South’, the current trendy term used to refer to the developing world. I recall from my university days seeing a map with a squiggly border drawn through it going to great lengths to capture Australia and New Zealand in the ‘Global North’, in doing so creating a boundary that gerrymandering cartographers in the US would dismiss as implausible.
As with the rest of the world, we are living in a global political environment that is more unstable than many of us have experienced in our lifetimes. We need only look at Russia’s heinous and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as an exemplar of how quickly things can deteriorate in any particular corner of the world.
Enter AUKUS. The trilateral agreement between Australia, the UK and the US is made of two pillars; the first will see Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines with the technical assistance of the US and UK. The technology will fulfil Australia’s modern defence needs, unlike our current fleet which are unable to spend nearly as much time submerged. The second pillar will allow for enhanced cooperation on future technology, allowing Australia to benefit from the hundreds of billions of dollars which have already been invested by our partners.
Though AUKUS enjoys bipartisan political support, it has not received universal acclaim domestically.
Critics in Australia will point to the price tag. For sure, it comes with a hefty bill – AUD $360 billion over the agreement’s lifetime. Whilst large, it nevertheless amounts to less than 0.15% of our overall national GDP across that period.
The biggest controversy, however, stemmed from Australia’s concurrent abandonment of an AUD $90 billion submarine deal with France. The sudden move prompted a scathing attack by President Macron on then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison, in doing so crystallising the Australian public’s increasingly poor perceptions of Morrison’s trustworthiness ahead of his subsequent election loss.
The French Ambassador to Australia was recalled, and it signalled a major low-point in the otherwise resilient relationship between our nations. Australia would ultimately pay compensation of 550 million Euros to the French contractor to break the contract.
Questions have also been raised in some corners about the reliance Australia would have on the US and UK to operate and maintain nuclear submarines under the deal. These concerns may yet intensify as Trump commences his second term in the White House.
Though no threats have been made by the incoming administration in relation to AUKUS, the US’ sudden shift back to a potentially more capricious political environment has understandably spurred discussion in Australia. Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles has sought to reassure these fears, rightly noting that AUKUS is as much in the strategic interests of the US as it is for Australia and the UK. If the need arises, policy leaders in all three nations should be prepared to make this point vigorously and repeatedly.
Any discussion of Australia’s geopolitical security should not ignore the Pacific, where a tug of war is unfolding for influence in the region.
In 2022 the Solomon Islands signed a security pact with China, raising concerns in Canberra at a time of an already deteriorated bilateral relationship between Australia and China, which had culminated in the latter imposing tariffs (since removed) on Australian goods such as wine, beef and seafood.
The tug of war is playing out in Pacific nations big and small. In 2024, Nauru abruptly reversed its long-held recognition of Taiwan in favour of China. Pressure is being applied elsewhere too, with the recent example of Chinese state-controlled media reporting on the views of so-called everyday Tuvaluans, who are apparently worked up about their country’s longstanding recognition of Taiwan, even going so far as to quote UN resolution 2758 in a vox-pop.
In light of the growing geopolitical importance of the Pacific, the current Australian federal government has stepped up its efforts to engage with the region. In doing so it has had to overcome historic complaints that we too deal with the region in a paternalistic manner.
Perhaps the best example of Australia’s renewed approach has been the Falepili Union signed between Australia and Tuvalu. The treaty, which comes into effect this year, will provide a guaranteed permanent migration pathway for the remote nation at the forefront of the climate crisis in exchange for Australia holding a veto on Tuvalu’s international security agreements.
It should be noted though that regardless of Falepili, Tuvalu is a country which prides itself on its unwavering relationship with Taiwan. On a recent visit I made there as part of a small delegation of Victorian and Kiwi MPs, the Prime Minister Feleti Teo was quick to point out that Tuvalu is one of the few Pacific nations to have steadfastly recognised Taiwan. There appeared to be little appetite to change this.
Although it has been made clear that there is no intention of interfering with the South Pacific’s status as a nuclear free zone, the enhanced capabilities facilitated under the second pillar of AUKUS will ultimately help Australia to maintain peace, security and order for our region just as both pillars will support our own continued security.
To achieve this, it is vitally important that Australia, the UK and US work together. Though the point may seem obvious, the success or failure of AUKUS will be ultimately determined by the continued goodwill and cooperation amongst our three nations.
We cannot know what the threats of tomorrow will bring. What we do know is that Australia, in our little corner at the south of the globe, will be safer with AUKUS than without it.
Image: The UK, Australian and US leaders hold a press conference, Simon Walker, 2023//CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
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