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Having been born in Poland and living there until the age of 11, I am constantly looking back on the former half of my life spent in Warsaw, and keeping up with the country’s politics and affairs, along with celebrating its rich history.
In the time I’ve spent away from the country, particularly since 2015, its economic and cultural stances have improved drastically – with Warsaw and Krakow now attracting tourists during inter-railing visits or city breaks. It goes without saying that Poland’s history is rather detrimental, and it is a relief that the history is still celebrated by Polish nationals living in and outside of the country’s borders.
The talks of Poland joining the G20 – a collaborative “forum” for the world’s largest economies – and replacing Russia have increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022 – especially since global economies, which are also a part of the G20, such as the US and the UK, have started to place sanctions on Russia for its actions on Ukrainian land.
With Poland’s GDP growth reaching 4.7% in 2019 (compared to an EU average of 1.8%), it makes sense for these assumptions to have stuck – the claims of Poland possibly becoming a part of the G20 are not baseless, and are becoming increasingly realistic year by year as the predictions continue.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied that global economic sanctions have had any effect on the Russian economy, claiming that “[Russia] has growth, whereas [the rest] have decline”. Yet, statistically speaking, Russia’s GDP growth rate fell to -2.07% in 2022, whereas Poland’s reached 5.6% that same year.
Whereas the debate regarding Poland replacing Russia has been significant due to the rapid fall in Russia’s GDP growth established above, Poland’s economy is now growing faster than that of other G20 countries, too – massively surpassing South Africa and Argentina; both of which have the smallest economies among the alliance.
Poland’s development minister, Piotr Nowak, has been outspoken about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affected the country’s role in global alliances and deals, claiming that “there should be no place for Russia in the G20” after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Nowak has further claimed that due to the fact that Poland is now the second fastest developing country in the world in last 30 years, its place in the G20 would be well-deserved and would showcase the extent of the said growth.
Main predictions, such as that of Piotr Arak, the director of the Polish Economic Institute, have outlined that Poland is set to join the G20 by 2030 if its economic growth keeps up at its current pace.
Poland’s post-communist economy joining the G20 would be a significant achievement, with the country’s politics traditionally leaning towards the right-wing and only seeing a change of government in 2023, with the Civic Coalition currently holding a majority in the Polish government.
When examining the broader picture of our continent, the collapse of the German government and an unstable political situation in France, along with the already described instability in Russia and similarly in Belarus, it appears that stability and growth are just what Europe needs.
The economic development of Poland joining the G20 would end the stigma around the post-World War consensus that Poland still typically attracts, both from the media and from other economies, and prove that its economic capability can live up to expectations and beyond.
After all, as evidence suggests, Poland has already been doing it for years – and it only makes me prouder and prouder each year that I get to see my home country succeed after its adverse historical background.
Image: President Joe Biden participates in a family photo at the G20 Summit by Adam Schultz, 2024 // CC0
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