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For all its faults, America did get one thing right: a robust system of checks and balances. The US constitution grants specific powers to the three branches of government (the executive, the legislative, and the judiciary) to ensure that no branch has too much power over the other. While the effectiveness of such measures has long been debated, America now faces an unprecedented situation of federal partisanship that may render them entirely ineffectual.
The Republicans have secured the Presidency, the Senate, and look set to retain control of the House. While control of the executive and the legislative has been controlled by a single party before (e.g., Republican 2003-2007, and Democrat 2007-2011), the judiciary has remained far less partisan. Both the Bush Junior and Obama administrations saw partisan justices on the Supreme Court, however the court remained fairly ideologically balanced, with Justice Anthony Kennedy often acting as a swing vote on various cases, ensuring that checks and balances could still be largely effective. This all looks set to change under the next Trump Administration.
During President Trump’s first presidential term, he appointed three new justices to the Supreme Court, resulting in a clear 6-3 Republican lean. This level of partisanship had never been seen before and raised significant concerns throughout the nation. While Republicans controlled both the House and the Senate throughout his time in office, Trump’s final justice, Amy Coney Barrett, was not confirmed until 8 days before the US’s 2020 general election, and thus the arrival of such a polarised court coincided with the return of the presidency and the House to Democratic control. This blend of party control across the three branches of government helped to ensure that the system of checks and balances remained in place under the Biden administration, an assurance we may not see again until at least the next midterm election. With Trump’s return to power, the Republican party is predicted to control all three branches of government. Such ideological alignment means there will be limited motivation for each branch to check each other as it wouldn’t prove to be politically beneficial. What might this mean for the American people?
For a start, it could result in even stricter limits on women’s reproductive rights. With the overturning of Roe v Wade in 2022, power over abortion legislation was delegated back to the states, resulting in abortion being downright illegal in thirteen states. Of the rest, less than half have clear protections for it. The Republicans are unlikely to stop here. During his presidential campaign, Trump expressed his openness to the idea of limiting access to abortion medication such as mifepristone, a pill normally used within the first ten weeks gestation to terminate a pregnancy. With a Republican majority in both houses, President Trump would be unlikely to face much of a fight in the legislative branch should he wish to pass such a controversial measure. This would likely be similar in the judiciary, who have left the door open for such an issue. With states such as Florida currently enforcing a six-week abortion ban, limiting access to mifepristone would effectively result in an outright abortion ban in the state. Similar issues may occur in a further six states, bringing the number of states in which abortion is illegal to twenty.
Abortion is just one example. With limited checks and balances in place, we can expect to see an influx of Republican legislation that faces little resistance. Matters such as gun control, immigration, and education have the potential to change significantly under the new administration and many are concerned about how the future will look. This unchecked power will also have a notable impact on foreign policy, leaving the situations in Ukraine and Gaza on unsteady ground. With no political desire to hold each other in check, America will tread dangerously close to the line between democracy and dictatorship.
Image: US Constitution Preamble Drawing // CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
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