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The 2024 US election cycle was forecasted to be chaotic, with significant concerns around AI’s role in potentially influencing outcomes. Issues have been raised by experts and media outlets anticipating a future in which deepfakes could sway voters and misinformation campaigns driven by AI could threaten the foundations of democracy. Now that the dust has settled, it appears that some of these fears may have been exaggerated. While AI was indeed a factor, its impact was considerably less than expected.
As a student, I have been closely following the development of AI and its potential effects on our democratic systems. It’s essential to tackle this topic with a balanced perspective and a focus on the facts rather than hurried predictions of what could happen.
Meta’s Adversarial Threat Report concluded that AI-driven tactics offered only “incremental” advantages to those seeking to manipulate voters. The company also noted that efforts within the tech industry to counter these campaigns seem to be working effectively. This suggests that AI wasn’t a game-changer in swaying voters but rather a tool with limited effectiveness. Research from The Alan Turing Institute further supports this view, finding that AI interference was present in a small fraction of elections held since 2023, with no significant effect on the outcomes. The above sources I’ve reviewed indicate a consistent message: AI’s influence on the 2024 election has been quite limited.
Several factors explain AI’s limited impact. Firstly, we mustn’t underestimate the independence and critical thinking of voters, even in today’s polarised political climate. The sheer volume of information people receive daily creates an atmosphere in which any single piece of content—whether generated by AI or humans—stands out enough to decisively impact voters. This constant flood of information serves as a natural buffer, reducing the potential impact of even the most well-crafted AI propaganda.
In the future, AI-generated content might even backfire on those deploying it. As public awareness of the AI-generated material grows, it may become less effective. It’s also crucial to remember that personal values, social networks and life experiences significantly influence voting decisions. Information and media (regardless of reliability) are not the sole factors driving voter choices.
Meanwhile, AI companies and social media platforms know they’re being watched. On February 16th this year, 22 businesses, AI developers and social platforms signed a joint statement at the Munich Security Conference committing to address democratic concerns related to the 2024 election. This collective statement, signed by the likes of Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, reflects a somewhat proactive stance from within the tech industry.
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the anxiety surrounding AI is its potential to distract from more pressing threats to Western democracy. Issues including voter suppression, the spread of misinformation through traditional media channels and the erosion of trust in institutions are arguably far more impactful and dangerous than any AI-generated deepfake. By focusing so intently on AI, we risk neglecting these fundamental challenges. Moving forward, it may an important step to take a more balanced view of AI’s role in political elections. It is essential to be cautious, but we must avoid fear-mongering and sensationalism— directing a sharper focus on the greater, older systemic challenges which harm democracy.
Image: Hand Voting Drawing, election vintage, 2023 // CC0
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