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What do Flamingos, an Epidemic and a Drone Factory all have in common? They signify the dismal state of the Russian war machine. With the frontline growing more stable, this year has highlighted the multiple failings of Russia to finish its ‘special military operation’.
Low Manpower
In the latest development in the Ukraine war, Russia has moved to year-round conscription, requiring all men aged 18-30 to serve 1 year of military service. This shift from the previous model of two annual drafts is telling of the growing desperation from the Kremlin to fill its manpower shortages. While conscripts are prohibited to fight abroad, they are often pressured into signing contracts that enable them to fight in Ukraine.
In the same week, Putin has signed an additional law permitting the use of Reservists troops to guard ‘key infrastructure sites’ – no doubt in response to the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes on petrochemical plants.
These manpower shortages become most apparent by the use of segregated units comprising of infected troops. In the beginning of the war, HIV rates among Russian military personnel reached 40 times the pre-war levels. Now, in 2025, specific units have been formed to fight on the front lines. Distinguished by only a coloured armband, these units have been sent on a brutal offensive to capture Pokrovsk, a strategic city on the Donetsk Oblast.
This epidemic will have a great impact on the Russian state as healthcare costs soar and the labour shortage continues into the second and third quarters of the twenty-first century, this will be very emblematic of Putin’s true legacy.
Labour Shortages
Moreover, a recent BBC investigation has revealed that women from Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America have been trafficked to work in attack drone factories. They were led to believe they could participate in a technical qualifications’ scholarship programme. After three months of language classes, they are forced to sign non-disclosure agreements are coerced to produce the infamous Iranian Shahed drone. Salaries are deceptively low after arriving and frequently subject to fines thus meaning many are unable to afford to leave Russia.
This is not a unique solution for Russia. The use of enslaved North Korean labourers who are sent all over Russia to work 18 days on construction sites is clear evidence that “Russia is suffering a severe labour shortage right now” according to Andrei Lankov, a renowned expert in North Korea-Russia relations. The men head to Russia under the constant supervision of North Korean security services to escape poverty for them and their family, who they are forced to leave behind. In 2024, 10,000 labourers were sent to Russia, but Pyongyang is expected to dispatch over 50,000. The majority of their wages are diverted to the North Korean State, earning millions for the regime.
The birth of a new military industrial complex?
More significantly, the war given rise to a new highly innovative Ukrainian Military industrial complex. The most shining example of this is the FP-5 cruise missile, more affectionately known as the Flamingo. The pink nosed rocket holds an explosive payload of over 1 tonne and with a range of 3000km, it puts all European Russia into range. Not to mention it is cheaper to produce than western equivalents. It’s creators, Fire Point, currently state that they produce around 1 missile per day but will produce 7 per day by the end of the year, putting it ahead of US and Russian cruise missile production, combined. Their lead in the development of ‘affordable mass’ weapon systems (a doctrine the pentagon is seeking to adopt) could give Ukraine greater bargaining power in future arms deals.
The undermining of Russian’s Trump card
Ukraine has continued to strike the Russian energy network. The recent attacks on Russian’s oil refineries have led to estimates that it is down by 20% at any one time. While most factories can be repaired, it is the sheer scale of Ukrainian drone attacks that has limited Russian oil capacity. In response, Russian authorities have introduced rationing for citizens – this will further increase domestic tensions the war is having. The use of sanctions has also made repairs of refineries more difficult.
Moreover, Trump applied 50% tariffs to India in August, with a further 25% for buying Russian oil and arms, the latter of which India is quite dependent upon. This has had a great effect on Russian support. India is the second largest importer of Russian oil and in 2024 it made up 35-40% of India’s total oil imports – up from 3% in 2021. Yet, major Indian importers have begun to decrease purchases from Russia which may signal a change in Russian support in favour of close relations with Washington.
Conclusion
The demographic repercussions this war will have on the Russian population will be felt for decades. Further adding to the strategic loss this war has had on Russia. They have become dependent Beijing and Pyongyang for support, emboldened the NATO alliance to finally get its act together and created the perfect environment for Ukraine to bolster its own defences. The Ukrainian population is now highly veteranized and their defence industry is carving a name for itself as a world leader in innovative solutions – a recurring theme for Russia’s post-soviet enemies. Thus, as it stands, the Kremlin’s imperial greed has been the very thing that has set the sun on another empire.
Edited by Elizabeth Pinkney
Image: CC-BY 4.0
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