0
0
Welsh nationalism is no longer a niche interest within the broad spectrum of British politics. The upcoming Senedd election demonstrates that Wales’s future is increasingly shaped by its electoral influence. The contest is not simply over independence, but over the essence of Welsh nationhood. Upon this, the electorate are divided. On one side, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Greens champion a progressive vision of self-determination. On the other, Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK defend a Westminster-centred status quo marked by scepticism towards self-rule. The election is therefore less about whether nationalism matters than whose defines Wales best.
Understanding this conflict requires an examination of the historical foundations of Welsh nationalism. Following the Roman withdrawal from Britain, Wales was divided into regional kingdoms in which identity was shaped by language, culture and local loyalties. It was not until the Anglo-Norman conquest and the formal annexation of Wales in 1284 that the distinction between ‘Welshness’ and ‘Englishness’ emerged. Subsequent rebellions against English rule, alongside symbolic figures such as Llywelyn ap Gruffudd and Owain Glyndŵr, embedded autonomy into Welsh political consciousness. Although English control was later consolidated through the Laws of Wales Acts (1535-1542), Wales was able to retain the cultural and linguistic foundations of the medieval period. These foundations later informed Welsh nationalism as a modern political ideology.
The Industrial Revolution profoundly reshaped Welsh society and identity. Rapid industrialisation and urban growth in the south during the nineteenth century produced new working-class communities, many of which were formed through migration from rural Wales. These communities retained strong religious, communal and cultural traditions. However, their integration into the British industrial economy encouraged political loyalties based on class rather than explicit national consciousness. Industrial Wales increasingly expressed its interests through British labour movements and trade unions. Rural Wales was less shaped by industrialisation and remained more culturally homogeneous, becoming the heartland of Welsh cultural nationalism. This divergence deepened the urban-rural divide and generated a lasting tension between class-based politics and national politics. In this sense, the Industrial Revolution fundamentally altered how the Welsh understood their collective identity, laying the groundwork for today’s competing nationalisms.
Welsh Labour has been the dominant political force capable of bridging this divide. Its ability to fuse socialism with Welsh identity made it one of the most successful parties in history. However, the “clear red water” that Former First Minister Rhodri Morgan insisted separated the values of Wales and Westminster no longer holds. The dominance of UK Labour over its Welsh counterpart has been exposed since the 2024 general election. While current First Minister Eluned Morgan has attempted to reassert Welsh Labour’s autonomy – distancing herself from Keir Starmer and framing the election as an opportunity to challenge Westminster’s authority – these efforts have failed. Her proposal of a renewed “Red Welsh Way” unravelled following Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s rejection of devolving criminal justice, directly opposing demands made by Morgan only a week earlier. As Welsh Labour struggles to uphold its national distinctiveness, its credibility as a vehicle of Welsh nationalism has weakened.
The erosion of Labour’s integrity has left two rival nationalist parties contesting the election: Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. While Reform and even Plaid have adopted culturally conservative positions, their economic and constitutional programs are fundamentally opposed. Plaid Cymru promotes a model of Welsh nationhood grounded in economic self-determination. Its programme emphasises supporting Welsh business, retaining wealth in Wales and using devolved institutions to embed economic power in local communities. Reform, by contrast, aligns its policies with its unionist outlook. Its emphasis on deregulation, tax cuts and prioritising British prosperity threatens to sideline Welsh autonomy. Lacking engagement with Wales’s political and cultural distinctiveness, Reform represents an extension of Westminster politics rather than a Welsh nationalist alternative. This disregard was reflected in their plan to protect English identity by making St David’s Day a bank holiday – a day celebrating Welsh history and heritage.
This contest is particularly interesting considering how unexpected Reform’s presence is in Wales. Wales isn’t typically a conservative nation, its politics are historically socialist, communitarian and progressive. It is therefore peculiar that such a large portion of the population (23%) are willing to vote for a party of ex-Conservatives, defined by their hostility towards devolution. Its willingness to end the Senedd’s very existence reveals a deeper indifference towards the expression of Welsh national identity. As a result, Plaid Cymru stand to gain vast support from progressive but disillusioned Labour voters. The Greens are also in an advantageous position to secure such voters in urban areas.
The Senedd election ultimately revolves around the voter’s view of Welsh identity. Labour’s collapse of support – in Westminster and the Senedd – has formed and allowed the divide between Britishness and Welshness to solidify. With the political spectrum being torn apart, the election is no longer a choice between policies but a battle between two rival ideological projects. Voters are now pressured to decide whether they want a government with a Britain-first outlook or a Wales-first future. In doing so, their allegiance with the union or the nation will be exposed.
Edited by Phineas Horan
Image: Welsh flags, St David’s Day 2009 // CC BY 2.0.
Average Rating