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Many are familiar with the rise of Reform UK, which has, at the time of writing, recruited nine high-profile defections from the Conservative Party, including most recently Suella Braverman. After the devastating loss in 2024 and the ever-growing popularity of Reform and Nigel Farage, many people are commenting that the ‘glory days’ of the Conservative Party are long gone, and that there is a low possibility they will be coming back anytime soon. Can the Conservatives look to the death of the Liberal party to perhaps chart a better course for their own.
The May 2024 election, saw a huge loss for the Conservatives, losing 251 MPs. Then came the rise of Reform UK, led by the popular Nigel Farage, now joined by several well-known Conservatives such as Robert Jenrick and Nadine Dorries. The rise of Reform for many signals a decline of the centre right and, the days of a more centrist and moderate Conservative Party, led by leaders such as David Cameron and Theresa May. The centre right has been advocated for by leading Tories including Baroness Ruth Davidson and Sir Andy Street, who have claimed to be ‘politically homeless,’ with these politicians starting a movement to harbour centre-right members of the party. As we can see, there has been a significant transformation in the leadership and hopes for the Conservative Party, which could signal the start of its decline.
Kemi Badenoch is the first leader after the catastrophic loss of the 2024 election and is already facing an uphill battle to gain popularity again. She is seen as a figure for the far-right faction and divisive for many in the Conservative party when rising to power. Badenoch criticised the new centre-right movement being proposed by Davidson and Street, stating that centrists aren’t welcome in the Conservative party. However, in recent days, she has been seen more favourably by her party due to her actions, such as her swift sacking of Robert Jenrick, over his planned and later successful defection to Reform UK. After Suella Braverman’s sacking, Justine Greening, a former cabinet minister, called on her to move the party back into the mainstream by utilising the defections of the more far-right politicians. Badenoch seems determined to turn a new chapter for the party by disregarding the more moderate faction, which could hinder the party’s chances of appealing to a political population that currently is not being targeted by right-wing parties.
Tory post-election popularity problems draw striking similarity to the 19th century liberal party. The predecessors of the Liberal Democrats were the Liberal Party, the main opposition of the Conservatives in the 19th century till 1918. However, after WW1, they suffered politically with a fierce divide within the party between Lord Asquith and David Lloyd George, harming the success of their party. They lost their majority in later elections and then decided to rally behind the Labour Party, but this solidified their death as one of the two dominant parties and ushered in the Labour Party. In later years, to help their dwindling popularity, they formed an alliance with the Social Democrats in the late 80s to form what we know now as the Liberal Democrats, who did win 64 seats in the last election, but are still the third most popular party. The Liberal Party’s decline, albeit in vastly different circumstances, shares the common themes of division and a new political party gaining ground to replace them, meaning we could see a similar fate befall the Conservatives.
What faces the Conservatives now is an uphill battle as they must compete with a burgeoning right-wing party that seems hell-bent on eliminating them as the dominant opposition. They could, like the Liberal Party, join forces with them, but this would signal the death of the Party as we know it. Or the party could listen to calls from the centre right to try and claw back their moderate support and bring themselves back into the mainstream. Either way, what we do know is that the next general election could be a significant transformation in British party politics as we know it.
Edited by Phineas Horan
Image: Conservative Party Conference 2023, The Conservative Party, 2023// CC BY 2.0.
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