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It is fashionable to say that defence of the realm is a governments most important duty. There is a chivalric, statesman like air that comforts the public and briefly sends a politician into a Churchillian fantasy. But then the politician thinks about the NHS, social care, the justice system, policing, education, libraries, farming, immigration, industry and those bloody potholes. And defence is left quietly forgotten, neglected while still comforting the British public in blissful ignorance.
A major conflict feels closer than it has in 30 years. Russia has presented itself as a clear threat to British and European security, America has proven itself an unpredictable partner currently out of step with its NATO allies, the Middle East is enduring a prolonged regional conflict and China remains a growing threat on the world stage. At the same time prices are rising and people are feeling all the conflicts in the wallets. It is clear that something must be done to ensure the safety of Britin. If defence of the realm is the priority, then it must be defended. But who is going to pay for it?
NATO is the heart of British defence. Initially set up to deter a Soviet invasion of Europe in the late 1940’s, NATO seems to be returning to its original roll after 30 years of expeditionary operations in the Balkans and across the Middle East. As a nuclear power, Britian is an important member of the alliance. The UK also runs the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps Headquarters, a major NATO asset. The Royal Marines are key to Arctic defence and the Royal Navy plays a key role in defending the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdon sea gap. Yet rising tensions with Russia mean NATO need to present a credible deterrence to Russia to advert war.
Succussive Conservative governments have pledged, but failed, to increase defence spending to 2.5% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however the UK response to Iranian attacks on Cyprus proves that a rapid deployment to a conflict zone is still proving difficult. There is clearly a problem about generating the support to spend the money.
Russian aggression poses a significant threat to the UK. In 2014 Russia invaded Ukraine and took Crimea with little international opposition. Russian interference in Ukraine continued in the Donbas for years until a full invasion of Ukraine was launched in 2022. Leaving aside the ongoing war in Ukraine Russian aggression has extended to NATO. As a result, Russian missiles have passed through NATO countries, Russian aircraft have repeatedly breached NATO airspace, Russian cyber-attacks have been launched against NATO countries and Russia has even assassinated people on UK soil. It is perhaps no wonder why the Armed Forces Minister Alister Carns warned in an interview that there could be a major conflict in the next 3-5 years.
Drones have captured the debate about modern warfare, but adoption of a new tactical asset will do little to address the operational and strategical issues that face the UK. As it stands, Britian has only one Armoured Division capable of supporting NATO in the event of a ground war. On paper that is a force of almost 300 tanks however, it is likely that only 200 would be able to fight. For reference, Russia has already lost thousands of tanks in Ukraine since 2022. But it is not enough to only call for an investment in material however much it is desperately needed. The military must also invest in its people to retain their skills and achieve an armed forces that offers greater opportunity to those who serve.
Labour’s SDR presents some movement to reevaluate the military’s capabilities however, funding issues remain pressing. The Defence Investment Plan, the guiding document for defence spending to industry, is weeks late as a deadlock has emerged between the Treasury, Ministry of Defence and 10 Downing Street. To call spending restraints tight would be an understatement. Labour backbenchers has proven unwilling to cooperate with the government over spending cuts to welfare and it is hard to see where the money would come from.
The problem remains that defence is an impermeable world for the public to peer into. Yet without an honest national conversation about the nation’s security it is difficult to see a political solution to a deeply concerning problem. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the UK has not faced an existential threat and has fought wars of choice. That time is over. Without a change in the national consciousness about the important role that defence plays in all our lives, we face a changing and unpredictable world with our eyes shut to the frightening reality. At the same time, the British taxpayer is consumed by growing prices it is unclear if the price can be paid. However, what is clear is that the price is too steep not to pay.
Image: British Army soldiers from the Royal Welsh standing in the snow at a base near Tapa in Estonia by NATO via Flickr // CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
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