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The number of people aged 90 or over in the UK has reached an all-time high of 625,000, meanwhile the fertility rate has reached a record low of 1.39 children per woman in 2025, falling short of the 2.1 replacement rate. These statistics show that the population demographic of the UK is shifting in a direction that we should be concerned about.
Many problems arise from an aging population, especially with the workforce. Usually, as people retire, young people graduate and filter into entry level roles. However, there will be a surplus of jobs and not enough workers to fill them, creating labour shortages and skill-gaps which will stunt the UK’s economic growth.
At the same time, pension spending will increase. The average retirement age in the UK is 65 years old and 19% of the population is retired: that’s 12.7 million people who do not work and no longer contribute to the economy but still need financial support. The government allocates roughly 146 billion pounds in pensions per year, and with Andy Burnham promising to maintain the triple lock, this will continue to increase every April. Pension spending is already the single largest item in the UK welfare budget and, as the ratio of workers to retirees continues to drop, pension payments will become a heavy burden for working-age people to shoulder.
The demand for NHS and social care will also increase. Life expectancy is growing but population health does not reflect this- older people tend to have higher rates of chronic illness and require more medical care. People over the age of 65 make 40% of NHS hospital admissions. Older adults are also more likely to require long-term stays and fill beds.
We already have labour shortages in these crucial sectors, but the shrinking workforce will extrapolate this. The supply and demand for medical and social care will reach a total imbalance as the number of people entering the workforce does not match the amount leaving it.
Given the high cost of living, it is not surprising that young people are choosing not to have children. Childcare is becoming exceedingly expensive, and growing student loans and the impossibility of getting on the housing ladder makes starting a family inconceivable for many young adults. Various reports also suggest that young people are hesitant to have children due to growing concerns about the state of the world. Climate threats, political instability, and economic uncertainty result in feelings of insecurity and a general belief that having children is not worth it.
The decreasing birthrate paired with a simultaneously growing life expectancy could ultimately lead to a devastating population collapse. The working population will be unable to support the growing older demographic, both economically and socially. We can see examples of what problems the UK could face in countries such as Japan, who are already experiencing an extreme population crisis with similar statistical trends.
The UK government must do something soon to improve the lives of young people and encourage them to have children, otherwise Britain’s population graph will become so top-heavy that our economy and society will literally crumble under its weight.
Edited by Lily Groves
Image: rawpixel.com via rawpixel.com//CC0 1.0
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