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The short answer is no. But Trump still persists in doing everything he can to swing the results.
You only have to look at his attempts to shut down mail-in ballots through executive order in March, which has since been blocked by the Supreme Court. Despite 29% of Americans voting by mail, the Republican narrative (one echoed since his 2020 loss) is that mail ballots are rigged. The fact that Democrats are generally more likely to vote by mail- which is counted later and historically has widen the margins for Democrats – has been weaponised by a Trump administration desperately clinging on to the power a Republican house provides.
If the Democrats win back Congress in November, or at least one house, the checks on Trump will likely drastically increase. Most polling predicts one house swinging, something which is fairly standard for midterm elections. Thus far Trump has managed to exploit the Republican congress to an unprecedented level, mobilising the loyalty of the MAGA movement in legislative manoeuvres ranging from military action in Iran to dismantling the department of education in his first weeks in office.
There are numerous ways in which a democratic congress would be able to limit him – a Democratic Senate would have the power of impeachment. Despite impeachment being unsuccessful twice, it could drastically limit the onslaught of executive orders and other methods that he uses to implement his agenda. For Trump, who has already shown complete willingness to circumvent checks and balances (the abuse thrown at the Supreme Court after they struck down his use of tariffs comes to mind), it has become an imperative to restrict the chances of a democrat swing in the midterms.
In the run up to the midterms Trump has tried numerous ways of rigging the elections for the Republicans. This started with a campaign to redistrict states in favour of Republican votes – gerrymandering – which could potentially see the Republicans gain 3 extra seats in spite of Democrat attempts to counter with their own redistricting. The brazen attempts to limit voting rights has disproportionately affected minorities, too. Trump wants voters to be required to show documentary proof of citizenship: something which 11% of people of colour cannot readily access, in comparison to 8% of white people.
This comes in the wake of Louisiana vs Callais, a ruling which effectively gutted the Voting Rights Act and provisions against racial discrimination in voting. Ethnic minorities, particularly African Americans, are a voting bloc which vote overwhelmingly Democrat.
These disgraceful attempts to limit free voting have been supported by federal agencies: tactics ranging from search warrants and investigations of voting activists to attempts by the Texas attorney general to intimidate Democrat-leaning Latino organisations in the courtroom.
The courts have been able to limit some of the more outlandish efforts, demonstrated by the Supreme Court’s September ruling. What is concerning, however, is this will likely push Trump to greater lengths to secure a Republican foothold. In 2020 he tried to get Republicans to investigate states that Biden won by a narrow margin to try and get those electoral votes reassigned to him. His claims of a ‘stolen election’ remain consistent.
In 2026 Trump-appointed officials are not resistant to such efforts anymore – instead they actively facilitate it. It is not a leap to imagine a close-call election in November allowing federal agencies to press for recounts and create uncertainty over legitimacy. The FBI – headed by Trump loyalist Kash Patel – has the power to seize ballots and election equipment. If they did this, state officials could not declare the election, leaving the House and Senate to be the ‘judge of the election’. It is not difficult to imagine what the result decided by a Republican congress would be.
These attempts to limit voting feel dystopian; unimaginable a few years ago. They are now part of the reality of a Trump presidency.
Edited by Rhyme Elson
Image: Voted printed papers on white surface, Element5 Digital, 2018// Voted printed papers on white surface – Free Photo on Unsplash
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